Verification of the Consensus Forecast for the 2015 NE Monsoon Season Rainfall

The consensus outlook map (Fig.2) for the northeast monsoon season (June to September) of 2015, developed in the seventh session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) had indicated normal to above normal rainfall over southern parts of South Asia including southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. The consensus outlook also indicated above normal rainfall over northern most parts of the region and normal rainfall in over remaining areas of the region. As seen, the observed rainfall anomaly map (Fig.3) also suggests above normal rainfall over southern part and northern most parts of the region. These are also the regions which generally receive good amount of rainfall during the season. Thus the consensus forecast for the 2015 Northeast monsoon season rainfall was clearly able to indicate the main feature of the observed rainfall anomaly pattern